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Wind Crux LorraineTier 2

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decks
4 (8.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
14 6-4-4
overall winrate
57.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.5% avg ELO +0.2 per match
expected value
49.6% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.0% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1349 · median 1322 · range 1314–1439 (4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1000 Q1 1202 Q3 1355 1656
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Allies 15.2% 4 1-2-1 37.5% 43.8% 49.3% -0.4
Wind Allies 15.2% 5 2-2-1 50.0% 50.0% 50.3% +0.1
Fire Crux Mage 10.9% 0
Fire Aggro 4.3% 0
Fire Crux Hybrid 4.3% 0
Fire Neos 4.3% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 50.8% +0.8
Wind Umbra Ranger 4.3% 0
Fire Arcane 2.2% 0
Fire Diana 2.2% 0
Fire Erupting 2.2% 0
Fire Luxem Assassin 2.2% 0
Fire Tera Tamer 2.2% 0
Fire Tonoris 2.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 50.8% +1.3
Fire Umbra Ranger 2.2% 0
Fire Vanitas 2.2% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% -0.0
Water Astra Cleric 2.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 50.7% +1.1
Water Crux Mage 2.2% 0
Water Neos 2.2% 0
Water Tera Tamer 2.2% 0
Wind Neos 2.2% 0
Wind Tera Tamer 2.2% 0
Wind Vanitas 2.2% 0
Decklists · 4 from this event

The 4 public Wind Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 43 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 43 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Aesan Protector -1.00 0 1 0
Water Resonance Bauble -1.00 0 1 0
Fire Resonance Bauble -1.00 0 1 0
Lurking Assailant +1.00 1 0 0
Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa -1.00 0 1 0
Veiling Breeze +1.00 1 0 0
Lorraine, Spirit Ruler +1.00 1 0 0
Wind Cutter -1.00 0 1 0
Windrider Vanguard +1.00 1 0 0
Academy Guide -1.00 0 1 0
Life Essence Amulet -1.00 0 1 0
Savage Slash -1.00 0 1 0
Hurricane Sweep +1.00 1 0 0
Vanish from Sight -1.00 0 1 0
Inspiring Call -1.00 0 1 0
Stalwart Shieldmate -1.00 0 1 0
Fast Cure -1.00 0 1 0
Wind Resonance Bauble -1.00 0 1 0
Favorable Winds +1.00 1 0 0
Spellshield: Wind +1.00 1 0 0
Morgan, Soul Guide +1.00 1 0 0
Winbless Gatekeeper +1.00 1 0 0
Safeguard Amulet +1.00 1 0 0
Fairy Whispers -1.00 0 1 0
Zephyr's Edge -1.00 0 1 0
Lorraine, Crux Knight -1.00 0 1 0
Reclaim +1.00 1 0 0
Esteemed Knight +1.00 1 0 0
Rose, Eternal Paragon +1.00 1 0 0
Banner Knight +1.00 1 0 0
Ghosts of Pendragon +1.00 1 0 0
Dungeon Guide +1.00 1 0 0
Attune with the Winds +1.00 1 0 0
Grand Crusader's Ring +1.00 1 0 0
Idle Thoughts -1.00 0 1 0
Beseech the Winds -1.00 0 1 0
Tariff Ring +1.00 1 0 0
Zephyr +1.00 1 0 0
Mark of Fervor -1.00 0 1 0
Dream Fairy +1.00 1 0 0
Opening Cut -1.00 0 1 0
Warrior's Longsword +1.00 1 0 0
Prismatic Edge -1.00 0 1 0

JSON: /api/events/1618/archetypes/Wind Crux Lorraine